CCM III-Has Toynbee nailed it?
Toynbee argues that the breakdown of civilizations is not caused by loss of control over the environment, over the human environment, or attacks from outside. Rather, societies that develop great expertise in problem solving become incapable of solving new problems by overdeveloping their structures for solving old ones.
The postulate is – if you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail, or in military lingo, the generals always fight the last war.
America came to prominence synchronously with the rise of logical planning for the manufacturing & marketing model of goods. We have come to blend the effect of increased American prosperity with the attested cause of our manufacturing and marketing model.
This model is useful only for the things it is useful for (obviously, a tautology.) There are things, such as process-dominated categories like medicine, for which the Industrial Manufacturing & Marketing Model are absurd.
He argues that in this environment, people resort to archaism (idealization of the past), futurism (idealization of the future), detachment (removal of oneself from the realities of a decaying world), and transcendence (meeting the challenges of the decaying civilization with new insight, as a Prophet). He argues that those who Transcend during a period of social decay give birth to a new Church with new and stronger spiritual insights, around which a subsequent civilization may begin to form after the old has died.
Islam and Ignorance.
One example of what may be a global collapse of societies, may be the hundred-year collapse of Islam into an ignorant brutalism. The Wah’habi sect of Sunni Islam arose as a Puritanical reform movement – an archaism, similar to the Protestant Reformation in Europe – based on the textualism of the Koran. It degenerated surprisingly quickly, like the English Commonwealth, into a chaos more similar to Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty rather than a religious faith. The barbarism is exemplified by the wanton destruction of Palmyra by vandals who are more like street gangs than religious.
Iran is struggling with the yoke of medieval Sunni religion upon a largely young, and fairly progressively-oriented population.
They are no more linked with Islam than the Mafia is with Catholicism.